With the local elections less than three weeks away now and the possibility that London may turn blue in the mayoral election there is a very real possibility that Brown’s days at Number 10 could be… well, numbered.
Yesterday’s poll in the Times shows Labour trailing 16 points behind the Tories (Cons 44%, Lab 28%, Lib Dem 17%) and, most tellingly of all, just 11% of voters believe that Labour will win a ‘clear victory’ in the next general. Confidence in the Brown government is falling and if the Labour party make a significant net loss of Councils and Councillors on May 1st then the knives will be out.
It is a fairly stunning turnaround for Brown’s reputation which just six months ago was soaring. It will seem like a lifetime ago now for the Prime Minister but there was a time when Labour backbenchers were urging him to go to the Country to cash in on his popularity. It is clear that if Brown was to go to the country now then the Tories would have a landslide on the scale of Labour’s 1997 election victory.
In fact, Brown’s reputation is taking a real kicking lately, courtesy of the plight of Britain’s economy. Headlines have appeared in all of the major UK newspapers over the last week, all pointing the finger at government inaction and complacency.
The line that all countries are feeling the pinch and are struggling with the current international fiscal climate is simply not credible in explaining all of Britain’s woes. There is a crippling lack of confidence in the Government’s abilities to change that situation.
The Financial Times’ Harris survey found that 68% of British voters are “not confident at all” in the Government’s ability to deal with the current economic crisis. Compare this to 52% in Germany, 50% in France, 43% in Italy and 36% in Spain. People’s perceptions of the difficulties are different across Europe and that reflects their faith in the country’s leadership to steady the ship.
It is repeated instances of inaction that are causing the British public such concern. By not accepting culpability for any aspect of the state of the economy and by not reorganising his cabinet Brown appears out of touch with the worries of normal people.
This month though will be the real test of his leadership as people begin to receive their first pay packets with the ten per cent tax rate removed. Already I have encountered numerous people who talk about the impact on their pay packets. Who speak about increasing economic pressures and needing to save money wherever possible.
Those suffering most are those who Labour rely on – the lowly paid and those in part time employment. No wonder newspapers are reporting that if the results are bad for Labour this May then it could be curtains for the man who waited over a decade to take the helm of his party.
Unless Brown finds some way to reassure the British public that the government can protect us from economic turbulence, protect their jobs and their quality of life then he is in trouble. The question is, will anyone be bold enough to take him on.
